My homework for rest of the week…

I do agree that NIFTY closed above the level I anticipated. I tried to explore if it is the start of a reversal or just a retracement of the whole drop from the top (4692).

I looked into the behavior statistics and found it is still not ripe to say that a reversal of the trend has occurred.

On the chart you can see at "1" and "2",  how perfectly, NIFTY has resisted . Now NIFTY is close to the white line which is at 4265. Incidentally, this level matched with the 61.8 % Fib retracement level too. This is the point which will now give a tough fight. "In case" it passes through 4265, the next resistance is at around 4350.

 

A close beyond this point (Beyond the red line) should be considered as the exit point for SHORT positions holding, for longer period.